Polymarket 15m Volatility Strategy

Who is this for?

This workflow is for users who want to trade Polymarket’s 15-minute up/down markets (e.g. “Will BTC go up or down in this 15m window?”) based on spot price movement. It uses Binance 15m candles and your own thresholds to decide when to buy Yes or No, then monitors the position until settlement with optional take-profit and stop-loss, and redeems after settlement. Signing is done via your wallet (human-in-the-loop). You can receive a Telegram notification each time an order is placed.

What problem is this workflow solving? / Use case

• You want to automate Polymarket 15m up/down trading instead of watching and clicking manually.
• You want entries driven by clear rules: e.g. “within X minutes of settlement, if price moved up/down by at least Y, buy Yes or No.”
• You want to use your own wallet to sign orders and redeem, not a private key in the workflow.
• You want a Telegram alert when an order is successfully placed.

What this workflow does

1. Starts when you trigger the workflow and submit the config (currency, thresholds, order size, stop-loss, direction, Polymarket credentials, optional Telegram credentials). Binance 15m data uses the public API (no Binance credential needed).
2. Finds the current 15m market for the chosen currency (e.g. BTC) and gets your Polymarket proxy wallet.
3. Polls Binance 15m candles until either the window ends or a volatility rule matches:
   • Rules are like “10/380” (within 10 minutes of close, price move ≥ 380) or “5/250”.
   • Direction can be “up” only, “down” only, or both (first match wins).
4. When a rule matches, the workflow builds a market buy order and asks you to sign in your wallet (EIP-712). After you sign, it submits the order to Polymarket.
5. After a successful order, if you attached Telegram credentials, it sends a Telegram message with market name, side (Yes/No), and order size.
6. Monitors your position until the 15m window settles:
   • If the position’s mark price reaches 0.99, it triggers take-profit: builds a sell order, asks you to sign, then submits the sell.
   • If the position’s price drops from your average by at least your stop-loss %, it triggers stop-loss: same flow (build sell → sign → submit).
7. After settlement, if you still hold the position (no take-profit/stop-loss), it builds a redeem transaction, asks you to sign and submit the transaction in your wallet, then continues to the next 15m window.
8. Repeats for the next 15m window (find market, poll candles, match rule, sign, order, notify, monitor, redeem if needed).

When it runs / stops

• Runs: Once per 15m window; it keeps running until you stop or redeploy the workflow.
• Stops: When you stop or remove the workflow, or the workflow engine restarts.

Setup

1. Polymarket credentials: In the config node, attach your Polymarket credentials (API key, secret, passphrase). Your wallet address comes from the same credential (used for signing and proxy wallet).
2. Telegram credentials (optional): Attach Telegram credentials if you want a notification each time an order is successfully placed.
3. Parameters:
   • Currency: The underlying asset for the 15m market (e.g. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP).
   • Thresholds: One or more rules like 10/380,5/250 (minutes-to-close / min price move). The workflow buys when the current 15m candle satisfies one of these rules.
   • Order amount (USD): Size in dollars per market order.
   • Stop-loss (%): Percentage drop from average entry price that triggers an automatic sell (after you sign).
   • Direction: “up” to only buy when price moves up, “down” when it moves down, or leave empty to allow either (first match wins).
4. Start: Trigger the workflow; when the next volatility condition is met, the workflow will prompt you to sign the buy (and later any sell or redeem) in your wallet. Binance 15m candles are read from the public API (no Binance credential required).

Key Features

• Uses wallet signing for all orders and redeem (no private key in the workflow).
• Telegram notification after each successful order (if Telegram credentials are set).
• Take-profit at 0.99 and stop-loss by percentage from average price.
• Redeem after settlement when you hold to expiry.
• Repeats automatically for each 15m window.

Nodes in Use

• Start: Triggers the workflow once.
• config (user-config): Collects currency, thresholds, order amount, stop-loss, direction, Telegram credentials (optional), and Polymarket credentials. Binance data uses the public API (no credential).
• code (function): Runs the strategy: fetch market and proxy, poll Binance 15m candles, evaluate thresholds, request wallet signature for buy/sell/redeem via the human-in-the-loop service, submit orders to Polymarket, send Telegram message on order success, monitor position and apply take-profit/stop-loss, then redeem after settlement.

Reference

• Polymarket
• Telegram